Sunday, December 14, 2008

Broncos at Panthers Prediction (12/14)

If the Chiefs beat the Chargers today, the Broncos win the AFC West. If the Chargers beat the Chiefs, the Broncos can win the AFC West by beating the Carolina Panthers this afternoon.

Here are the keys to the game for the Broncos according to the Sporting News:

1. Stop the run: The Broncos have done a much better job in recent weeks after locking into their 4-3 scheme and using a safety close to the line of scrimmage to help. There's no better evidence than Sunday, when the Chiefs' Larry Johnson came to town and managed just 36 yards on 11 carries after getting 198 yards in the teams� first meeting. Denver's allowed just slightly over 4 yards per carry since its bye. But DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart represent the best tandem they've faced this year and will provide a strong hint as to whether the team will be able to be a legitimate playoff force given anticipated January cold-weather games.

2. Stay loose: Denver actually has played its best football against some of the top competition its faced on the road, especially recently. The Broncos rallied to beat Cleveland, then played solid all-around games against both Atlanta and the New York Jets in winning three straight away from Invesco Field at Mile High. The Broncos are a young team that should on the surface thrive at home but they actually seem to play more relaxed and make more plays away from the distractions of friends and family. But Carolina is 7-0 at home this year.

3. Find some balance: The injury to Peyton Hillis may prove the straw that broke the camel's back. He is the fifth running back to land on injured reserve and was playing physical while adding a dimension in the passing game. There has to be a point where all the injuries finally catch up. But Denver can't just spread the field and constantly chuck it around without at least the threat of a ground game. Tatum Bell likely steps into an increased role, but rookie Cory Boyd may get a shot at some carries, too. There's also a longshot chance that Selvin Young may finally return after missing most of the last eight weeks with a severe groin pull.

Game Prediction: Broncos 28, Panthers 27

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction (12/7)

The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs this afternoon. Here are the keys to the game for the Broncos according to the Sporting News:

1. Maintain balance. The Broncos have gotten a lift from hard-charging Peyton Hillis as their tailback. Hillis, a converted fullback, posted the second 100-yard individual game for a Broncos back this season last week and is growing more comfortable with reading and attacking cutback lanes with every start. Denver won't stray from its attacking passing game with Jay Cutler, but Hillis, playing against a Kansas City team with a suspect front seven, can make play action that much more effective for downfield strikes.

2. Remain sure-handed. Denver, against the Jets, improved to 6-0 this season when the turnover battle is either even or in its favor. The Broncos were able to complete some big plays vs. the Chiefs in the first matchup, but aggressive pursuit from behind forced the two fumbles. And Cutler at times tried to force the ball to Brandon Marshall, opening up chances for interceptions. The Broncos are more multi-faceted now, with Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley and tight ends Tony Scheffler and Daniel Graham contributing in the passing game. If they hang onto the ball, they should win because they have a more talented roster overall.

3. Bottle up LJ. The Broncos surrendered a long Larry Johnson run early in Kansas City and the floodgates just opened. Expect Denver to stick with its eight-man principles with strong safety Marquand Manuel near the line to help with run containment. While Denver overall has been more aggressive and better tackling in the last several weeks vs. the run, New York's Thomas Jones still had 59 and 29 yard touchdowns last week. The Broncos run D has been susceptible to big plays.

Game Prediction: Broncos 28, Chiefs 14

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Broncos at Jets Prediction (11/30)

The Denver Broncos are currently in first place in the AFC West and they face the New York Jets, who lead the AFC East, this weekend.

Here are the keys to the game for the Broncos according to the Sporting News:

1. Don't cough it up: It sounds like a broken record but it�s the truest harbinger of Denver�s success or failure. Against Oakland, the Broncos moved 12 plays to the Oakland 8 ... and fumbled. The Broncos are fifth in the NFL in passing yards per attempt and also fifth in rushing average per carry. But only two teams -- Houston and San Francisco -- have more giveaways this season than their 22. They can move the ball. They lose when they don't hang onto it.

2. Get Prater straight: The Broncos didn't exactly forget about Jason Elam in the first half of the season but Matt Prater made it easy to appreciate his own skillset. He's been perfect on five kicks beyond 50 and was arguably the AFC's top kicker through the first seven games. But Prater has missed a field goal in each of the last four games. Coaches say it's not poor technique but falling confidence at play. The Meadowlands' notoriously tricky winds isn't the best place to find yourself as a kicker. But Prater needs to in order for Denver to make a legitimate push to the AFC West title the rest of the way.

3. Get some pressure: The Broncos are getting very little out of their four-man rush. It's one of the reasons why the team has so few interceptions (4). Denver did get aggressive in Atlanta two weeks ago and it worked at times in rattling and confusing rookie Matt Ryan. While Brett Favre has seen it all and has a chance to exploit single coverages created by sending extra pressure, Denver can't simply allow Favre to sit back in the pocket and pick them apart. They must at least attempt to go on the attack.

Prediction: Broncos 21, Jets 20

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Broncos vs Raiders Prediction (11/23)

The Broncos have a 2-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West. Today, they take on the dysfunctional Raiders.

Here are the keys to the game for the Broncos according to the Sporting News:
1. Continue to find balance: The Broncos have morphed into a pass-first offense, with dangerous weapons in Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley and strong tight ends. But the battered backfield finally found its stride in the second half against Atlanta while running for 124 yards on 25 carries overall and throwing 27 times. Establishing the run effectively sells play action, where Cutler excels -- throwing on the move.

2. Stay physical: Denver allowed 257 rushing yards at New England on Oct. 20, prompting Mike Shanahan to expand full-pad practices from once per week to three times. In concert with a simplification of the defensive fronts that eliminated its 3-4 look, the results have been a more aggressive, hard-hitting group overall with fewer busted assignments. The Broncos limited both Jamal Lewis and Michael Turner to one break-out run and shut down the Dolphins tandem since the change.

3. Keep the miscues down: Denver's giveaways per week are 0, 1, 2, 4, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 0. If you want to find the biggest key to their success or lack thereof, that statistic is the tell-all. The Broncos are 5-0 when they turn the ball over once or not at all. Their four games with 3 or more turnovers were all losses. The full-pad practices may have had a dual effect in that ball security has improved.

Game Prediction: Broncos 31, Raiders 13

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Broncos vs Falcons Prediction (11/16)

The Denver Broncos visit the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday. Denver is currently 5-4 and in first place in the AFC West. The Atlanta Falcons are currently 6-3 and tied for 2nd place in the NFC South.

Here are the keys to the game for the Broncos according to the Sporting News:
1. Balancing the offense: The Broncos won't be able to grind teams with the running game but must at least provide enough of a threat on the ground to prevent teams from flooding zones with defenders to stop the pass. Things are so bad for the Broncos they re-signed Tatum Bell on Tuesday. On Monday, they signed Alex Haynes, a versatile speed back.

Given the injury situation at running back, fullback Peyton Hillis likely will be asked to carry the load for at least one more week. Hillis can move the pile and, despite his rookie status, keeps Denver from exposing Cutler to unnecessary pressure by going to empty sets. Hillis can pick up pass protection well and can also catch out of the backfield if teams send a four-man rush.

2. Stay turnover free: It's a pretty simple formula: When the offense turns the ball over, the team loses. The Broncos had eight interceptions and eight lost fumbles during four losses in five weeks leading into the Cleveland game. But they didn't put the ball on the ground and Cutler threw one pick against the Browns, and the Broncos rallied for 21 points in the fourth quarter to win. In fact, they are 5-0 in games in which they have fewer than three turnovers.

3. Maintain gap responsibility: The defense continues to be a mess. There's a long-shot chance cornerback Champ Bailey could return but the defense will be playing with three linebackers who started the season on the bench. Denver is wildly inconsistent against the run. Turner victimized the Broncos even as a backup in San Diego. While Ryan has been a revelation, you can bet the Falcons would be happy to pound away at a smallish defense that has yielded at least 4.6 yards per carry in all but two games and is vulnerable to the long run.

Game Prediction: Broncos 21, Falcons 20

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Broncos add RB Tatum Bell today

The Denver Broncos first lost Andre Hall and Michael Pittman to season-ending injuries. Then they lost Ryan Torain to a season-ending injury. Selvin Young is banged up as well so it was likely that rookie FB Peyton Hillis was going to get the bulk of carries against Atlanta on Sunday.

But the Broncos added Tatum Bell today and he will suit up Sunday in Atlanta.
"I'm humbled," Bell said. "I didn't think I was going to get another chance, to be honest. I thanked coach [Mike] Shanahan for giving me this chance. I'll do whatever it takes. I'll play special teams. I'll play center. I'll do whatever it takes to help the Denver Broncos win."
Tatum Bell was released from the Detroit Lions after the Lions signed Rudi Johnson. In Bell's last season in Denver (2006), he had his only 1000-yard rushing campaign.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Ryan Torain done for year

I'm not sure what is worse for your health - to be a Seahawks WR or a Broncos RB. In any event, Ryan Torain, who was out 3 months with an elbow injury, will now miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL.

It was announced earlier in the week that Michael Pittman and Andre Hall would both be out for the rest of the season.

Although Selvin Young is not out for the season, he aggravated an injury in the Browns game and is likely out when the Broncos take on the Falcons next week.

Peyton Hillis, a FB drafted in the 7th-round of the 2008 NFL Draft, had 24 yards on 8 carries against Cleveland.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Broncos vs Browns Prediction (11/6)

After starting the season 3-0, the Broncos are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Tomorrow night, they face the Cleveland Browns in the first Thursday night game of the year.

Here are the keys to the game for the Broncos according to the Sporting News:
1. Win turnover battle. The Broncos have fallen to minus-11 in takeaway/giveaway margin, last in the NFL. While it's an equal opportunity issue -- Denver's secondary has two interceptions -- the offense has been the chief culprit during the current streak of four losses in five games. Cutler has thrown eight interceptions in those defeats. There also have been eight lost fumbles. That's been turned into 53 points -- 23 fewer than Denver scored in that four-game span.

2. Get running game going. The Broncos are coming off a 12-rush, 14-yard performance that was the second-worst showing in franchise history. And the backfield is beaten up. Michael Pittman and Andre Hall both went on injured reserve this week. Selvin Young might return from a groin injury but will likely back up Ryan Torain. The Broncos don't want extensively to use Torain, who seemed hesitant in his NFL debut Sunday. But they might have no choice. Denver can't allow teams to run exotic coverage schemes to confuse Cutler and take away Brandon Marshall knowing the Broncos are one-dimensional.

3. Rattle Quinn. Quinn has thrown all of eight passes in his season-plus in the NFL and will make his first start. The Broncos have done a decent job generating pressure the past couple games, simplifying the scheme to their base 4-3 last week and taking out the 3-4. With four reserves expected to start on defense, the Broncos might hold off on using the 3-4 front to avert any possible confusion over assignments. But the bet is defensive coordinator Bob Slowik dials up the blitz to test Quinn's decision-making.

Game Prediction: Denver Broncos 17, Cleveland Browns 16

Monday, November 3, 2008

Broncos lose Pittman, Hall for season

The Broncos lost RBs Michael Pittman and Andre Hall for the rest of the season. The only 2 RBs on their roster are Ryan Torain and Selvin Young.

Considering Young is banged up, Torain will likely get the majority of carries on Thursday versus Cleveland. Young has missed the previous 3 games with a groin injury.

Torain had 3 carries for 1 yard against the Dolphins.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Broncos vs Dolphins Prediction (11/2)

Today, the Denver Broncos (4-3, 1st in AFC West) take on the Miami Dolphins (3-4, 4th in the AFC East). The Dolphins have won 3 of their past 5 and could have easily won the Texans game when they lost by 1 point on a Matt Schaub QB sneak with 3 seconds to go.

Here are the keys to the game for the Broncos according to the Sporting News:
1. Hang on to the ball. The Broncos averaged a respectable 344.2 yards per game over the past month. The problem has been they can't quit beating themselves. They coughed up the ball 13 times in losing three games in four tries. Fumbling in particular has been an issue -- and not on huge tackles, but simple strips. Ball security is tantamount.

2. Figure it out. Coaches run a 3-4 scheme designed to create confusion and provide pressure via the pass rush. It's worked to some degree from that standpoint only. But in mixing in a 4-3 look as well, there has been confusion that opens huge gaps both in the passing and running games. The Broncos must pick a philosophy and stick with it.

3. Break one. Denver has morphed into a pass-first team that also runs. That philosophy suits the personnel, especially because of receiver depth. It's also allowed defenses to move away from the line of scrimmage and largely taken an eighth player out of the box. Michael Pittman runs strong but lacks breakaway speed. The insertion of rookie Ryan Torain into a complementary role could help, since the Broncos have one rush of at least 20 yards all season. If Torain can bust one, perhaps he can loosen up the secondary.

Game Prediction: Denver Broncos 28, Miami Dolphins 21